Boston Globe Online / Nation | World / Taiwan election could open new chapter Taiwan election could open new chapter

Pro-Independence opposition party sees chance after decades at presidential win

By Indira A. R. Lakshmanan, Globe Staff, 3/17/2000

TAIPEI - Unfazed by China's dark threats of the consequences, backers of Taiwan's independence-minded opposition can almost taste victory in tomorrow's vote for president, victory that would end 56 years of unbreakable rule by one all-powerful party.

Thousands skipped out of work yesterday morning to line the streets of the capital on a gray and drizzly day, madly waving green party flags and chanting their man's nickname until they went hoarse: ''A-bian! Get elected! A-bian! Get elected!''

His supporters set off hundreds of ear-splitting firecrackers as an energetic Chen Shui-bian passed in a red, open-top Jeep Wrangler, leading a motorcade that was several miles long through streets that he is credited with cleansing of vice, traffic, gangsters, and potholes when he was mayor of this capital city.

''Taiwan people know the future is not backward!'' technician May Fu, 54, shouted over the din from fellow Chen supporters. ''China is always trying to harass us, act with us like a father with a son. That just makes us feel more strongly Taiwanese.''

In stark contrast, the headquarters of the ruling party candidate, Vice President Lien Chan, was cloaked yesterday afternoon in an atmosphere of resignation, as it seemed possible that their once-omnipotent party might lose the presidency for the first time. One glum party worker napped under a campaign banner while several volunteers decked out in party colors gossiped at a table, waiting for instructions.

Across town, their candidate Lien - a stiff and charmless politician who makes Al Gore at his most wooden seem like Michael Jackson - delivered a speech in an unbroken monotone, never glancing up from his text. The top brass of his ruling nationalist party sat unsmiling at a long table, looking more like corpses in suits than enthusiastic party operatives determined to stump their man into office.

Even a week ago, the defeat of the Kuomintang nationalists - the world's richest political party and the second-longest-ruling after Mexico's PRI - was unimaginable for many. The last opinion polls nine days ago showed the top three candidates - Vice President Lien, former mayor Chen, and James Soong, a populist former governor - in a dead heat, with a quarter of the electorate undecided. But a final-week surge for Chen has many convinced that tomorrow's vote could break the nationalists' five-decade stranglehold on power.

Still, with $6 billion at their disposal, a well-oiled political machine, and the specter of stability vs. war, the nationalists could yet pull a victory.

''The other candidates may shout, but that doesn't mean they have something to say,'' said Daniel Dong, a 45-year-old party volunteer. ''Charisma doesn't count if you're going to lead the country to war or insecurity.''

Likewise, support from the disenchanted electorate for Soong, a popular maverick, cannot be underestimated. Further complicating predictions, election analysts said some voters are likely to change their pick at the last minute, opting for their second choice if they feel their favorite cannot win.

Whatever the outcome, the election is historic for the 22 million residents of this prosperous island that has lived 51 years in the shadow of mainland China. These are Taiwan's first truly contested elections for president; four years ago, President Lee Teng-hui, who held appointed posts under Taiwan's four-decade martial law, won an unsurprising victory in the island's first direct vote. This time, in contrast, the field has been wide open and the race too close to call.

Whoever wins will set the course of relations with Communist China, a relationship now at a low point as Beijing daily issues angry threats of war if Taiwan's winner declares independence, or even delays reunification.

The victor will also have to answer popular demands to reform Taiwan's notorious money-driven politics, and cut links between gangsters and elected officials. The new president will likewise chart the future of party politics and constitutional reform in Taiwan's 13-year-old democracy. Likely to scrape by with less than half the vote, however, the winner will lack the mandate and unquestioned authority of outgoing patriarch Lee.

The single campaign issue that has grabbed the most attention worldwide is the China question, and how each candidate proposes to deal with the Communist rivals across the 100-mile Taiwan strait. China considers Taiwan a breakaway province that must be reunited with the mainland after the nationalists' retreat to the island in 1949, following their loss in China's civil war.

For decades, however, Taiwan has functioned in practice as almost an independent state, with a robust capitalist economy and trade relations with most of the world, but without direct economic, political, or transport links with the mainland.

On the surface, the three candidates' official positions on China are hard to distinguish. All have peace plans and offers to expand economic ties and communication links with the mainland, while retaining de facto independence.

Almost no one in Taiwan wants to reunify before China becomes democratic, and Chen, who in the past advocated independence, has vowed daily during this campaign not to declare it.

Surveys in recent years show that people are increasingly identifying themselves as ''Taiwanese'' rather than ''Chinese,'' revealing a growing sense of native consciousness and a widening chasm with their mainland counterparts. Chen's Democratic Progressive Party has proven that all politics is local, gaining support by highlighting corruption, the economy, and quality of life over cross-straits relations.

With a no-nonsense, ''Mr. Clean'' image, Chen made money politics his main issue, holding himself up as the only credible reformer. One campaign ad portrayed the nationalist party as bank robbers bilking the nation.

The nationalists have homed in on the issues of security and stability. Their ads show gas masks, helmets, and missiles whizzing overhead if Chen is elected.

Maverick independent James Soong has played the populist card, milking his break from the nationalist party to paint himself as a reformer. He has denied accusations of corruption and cast himself as the best bridge between Beijing and Taipei, describing himself as someone who was born on the mainland, but who has worked tirelessly for Taiwan. Soong, who learned all the native dialects to reach out to every constituency, was once considered the strongest challenger to the ruling party.

Then, last weekend, Chen's campaign got a boost with a string of powerful endorsements, from Taiwan's only Nobel laureate - the highly respected head of the national academy - top businessmen, and the government's national security adviser. On Sunday, his rally in Kaohsiung city attracted about 400,000 people, more than any rally in Taiwan history.

This story ran on page A02 of the Boston Globe on 3/17/2000.
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